Olive Oil: What the 2025 Spanish AgroBank Report Reveals

Published in November 2025, the Informe sectorial sobre aceite de oliva (Olive Oil Sector Report) is a reference report produced by AgroBank, the agrifood division of CaixaBank, one of Spain’s largest financial institutions. I took the time to read the report in full, and I would like to share its key findings and data, both to better understand the current state of the market and to shed light on certain dynamics we are observing on the ground.

AgroBank works closely with tens of thousands of agricultural producers, cooperatives and agrifood companies, giving it privileged access to field data, financial flows and the real economic dynamics of the olive oil sector.

This sector report is based on economic, agricultural and commercial data at both national and international levels. It is not a marketing document, but a genuine analytical tool intended for industry decision-makers. It is nevertheless important to note that it adopts the perspective of Spain, the world’s leading olive oil producer, and analyzes the market primarily through the lens of mass production, competitiveness and industrial dynamics.

Expected Production Volumes

Global olive oil production for the 2024/25 campaign is estimated at 3.5 million tonnes, a record level. Approximately 60% of this production is expected to come from European Union countries, while 40%—around 1.4 million tonnes—would come from non-EU countries, also a record. This represents an overall increase of 36% compared to the previous campaign, which was marked by a historically low harvest of just 2.6 million tonnes.

According to these same projections, Spain alone is expected to produce around 1.4 million tonnes, representing 67% of European production and 40% of global production.

Producing Countries

Olive oil production is now spread across 58 countries on five continents, including new producing countries such as El Salvador, Ethiopia, Kuwait, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and North Macedonia.

Globally, the total area devoted to olive groves reaches 11.7 million hectares, including 2.7 million hectares in Spain, followed by Tunisia with 1.8 million hectares and Italy with 1.1 million hectares.

By continent, olive-growing areas remain largely dominated by Europe (60%), followed by Africa (27%), Asia (10%), the Americas (2%) and Oceania (1%).

Two Realities: Understanding the Wide Gap in Olive Oil Production

When we talk about olive oil production in Spain—and more broadly across the Mediterranean basin—we are in fact talking about two agricultural models that coexist, but which do not involve the same constraints, costs or economic outcomes.

On one side are intensive and super-intensive olive groves. On the other, traditional olive groves, often rain-fed, low-yielding and located on sloped terrain. The AgroBank report clearly illustrates this contrast.

Super-intensive plantations are built around efficiency and yield. These are hedgerow orchards with high planting densities, reaching 1,600 to 2,000 trees per hectare. Under these conditions, yields can exceed 10,000 to 12,000 kilograms of olives per hectare. Harvesting is fast, fully mechanized and highly efficient: machines can cover about one hectare in two hours, with harvest rates exceeding 90%. Harvesting costs are particularly low, around €0.03 to €0.04 per kilo, and pruning is also fully mechanized. As a result, olive oil production costs can fall to around €2.5 per kilo.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, traditional olive groves tell a very different story. They still occupy an important place in Spain’s olive-growing landscape, particularly in mountainous or hilly areas with steep slopes and low tree densities. These groves are mostly rain-fed and therefore entirely dependent on climatic conditions. Yields are significantly lower, and mechanization is often limited or even impossible. Harvesting still relies heavily on manual labor, which drives costs upward. Under these conditions, production costs can reach nearly €5 per kilo of oil, or even more when yields decline.

This cost gap is structural and tends to widen. While super-intensive operations benefit from economies of scale, advanced technologies and optimized logistics, traditional farms fully absorb rising labor costs, climate variability and the physical constraints of the terrain. The report also notes that these low-yield operations have suffered the most from declining profitability in recent years, with a real risk of abandonment in certain regions already affected by rural depopulation.

Both models produce olive oil, but not under the same conditions and not with the same objectives. One focuses on consistency, volume and cost competitiveness. The other relies on a far more fragile balance, where each harvest is variable and where value cannot be measured solely in tonnes or euros per kilo.

This contrast helps explain some of the current tensions in the market and provides insight into why not all olive oils can—or should—be compared solely on price. Behind every bottle lies a production system. And behind that system are profoundly different agricultural, economic and human choices.

Global Markets

Global olive oil consumption continues to grow and has stabilized around 3 million tonnes. Approximately 70% of this consumption comes from traditional markets, where olive oil is an integral part of daily diets and the Mediterranean way of eating. The remaining 30% comes from non-producing markets. Interestingly, these markets tend to show a higher proportion of quality olive oils than traditional producing markets.

In Mediterranean countries, more than 90% of olive oil consumption flows through large-scale food retail. Sales through specialty retailers and gourmet food stores account for less than 5% of the market. This share remains stable but is gradually increasing year after year. This segment represents a true niche market for certain specialized companies, and large retail chains also use it as a differentiation tool, notably through the creation of dedicated gourmet sections.

The situation is similar in Canada, notably at IGA and Metro, where Favuzzi offers several very high-quality olive oils. One challenge remains, however: improving planogram placement so that it truly reflects their quality level and price positioning.

Appellations in Spain

Official quality designations—Protected Designations of Origin (PDOs), of which there are 30 in Spain; Protected Geographical Indications (PGIs), of which there are two; as well as organic production, with 284,000 hectares of certified organic olive groves—illustrate the Spanish sector’s commitment to quality, an approach that is increasingly recognized and valued by consumers.

Price Stabilization, Except in Italy

At the global level, the five main producing countries—Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Tunisia—reached record prices during the 2023/2024 campaign. Since then, prices have retreated and, for extra virgin olive oil, now stand at around €420 per 100 kg in most countries, with the exception of Italy, where prices remain very high, between €900 and €920 per 100 kg.

For the 2023/2024 campaign, the European Union’s trade balance—defined as the difference between the value of olive oil exports and imports—reached a historic high with a surplus of €4.39 billion. Although the European Union produces around 60% of the world’s olive oil, it remains a very active participant in international trade, importing mainly from Tunisia, but also from Morocco and Turkey, while exporting large volumes to North American and Asian markets.

For the following campaign, 2024/2025, a decline of approximately 18% is expected, bringing the surplus down to €3.62 billion, mainly due to a sharp drop in unit prices linked to the increase in available supply.

What the Current Olive Oil Environment Means for Canada

The AgroBank report shows that the olive oil sector has entered a rebalancing phase after two historically weak campaigns. In Spain, production rebounded sharply in 2024/25 to exceed 1.4 million tonnes, and a similar level is expected in 2025/26, despite some early-season climatic uncertainties. Across the European Union, this recovery has led to higher end-of-season stocks, putting downward pressure on prices at origin, mainly for standard oils.

For Canada, which is entirely dependent on imports, this situation carries several implications. Olive oil availability is significantly better than over the past two years, the risk of shortages has eased, and supply chains are more fluid. In addition, the sharp price declines observed in Europe—up to 45–50% below last year’s levels for certain categories—create a more favorable environment for importers, particularly for high-volume and entry-level oils.

The report nonetheless highlights an important nuance: this dynamic does not apply uniformly across the entire market. High-quality olive oils remain structurally scarce and follow a different economic logic. Production costs are higher, notably due to lower yields, earlier harvests and practices aimed at preserving aromatic intensity and polyphenol concentration. In this segment, the downward pressure seen on standard oils is far less pronounced, or even absent.

For the Canadian market, where growth is driven more by value than by volume, this context reinforces the distinction between two realities: on one hand, commodity oils that are more sensitive to production cycles and price adjustments; on the other, premium oils, whose positioning depends above all on intrinsic quality, origin and harvest timing.

In short, while the current environment is reassuring for the supply of the Canadian market and opens up opportunities in certain segments, it also serves as a reminder that a decline in average prices does not mean a homogenization of the offer—and that, in olive oil, quality is built well before the product reaches store shelves.

Spain at a Glance

·      1,835 olive mills

·      1,784 bottling companies

·      64 pomace extraction units

·      25 refineries

·      2.7 million hectares of olive groves

·      1.4 million tonnes of olive oil expected in 2024/25

·      40% of global olive oil production